Of all things that seem to besiege the news following sensitive humans, the question that haunts them most is - is humanity doomed?
The answer is obviously - yes. The question is only about the timelines.
Climate Change: Geologists have told us that the this period of the Goldilocks temperature profile of being not too hot (Average temperatures of >90F) or not too cold (Average temperatures below 40F), will last about 5,000 more years (conditions apply). The earth has swung from one extreme to another several times in the past and will do again in the future for sure. We are experiencing the comfort of the transition in the present times.
The issue here is how much of the anthropogenic induced climate change will hasten the tipping over and how fast. lets look at the stats - Co2 levels of 400 ppm barrier has been breached. 440 ppm is considered by all environmentalists to be a sort of point of no return - that is, whatever we may do or not do after that will not reverse the runaway greenhouse effect.
India, China, Africa: The developed countries have had a great ride to prosperity based on democracies, powerful militaries, and a fossil fuel based economy. The going was great till the negative effects of carbon dependent economies hit home.
Now, we have roughly billion+ populations each in India, China and Africa (~50% of human population) that is now bent upon achieving material comfort levels comparable with developed countries and this cannot be done quickly enough with alternate (non-carbon) forms of energy. The carbon based energy consumption will curve up steeply for these populations and contribute faster and faster to climate change.
Wars and civil unrest: The present models of economic growth - mostly various shades of capitalism have necessarily created winners and losers, both within and between countries. Failed nations such as North Korea, Pakistan and Zimbabwe have taken the road of belligerence to ward off imaginary enemies. With the force multiplier effect of nuclear weapons the dangers of even limited wars is too large to even make sense of. Even militias like ISIS and Taliban have displaced millions from their homes and ravaged the countries.
Within countries too the income disparity is increasing rapidly with large swathes of populace feeling left out of the growth stories and there is nothing more dangerous than a mob with nothing to lose. We are seeing the effects of it in terms of increased frequency of lawlessness of increasing ferocity and this can lay waste to the concept of nation states far quicker than external aggression.
Religious warfare: One of the sources of social unity - religion - has now become increasingly a source of narrow identity where, everyone not subscribing to your particular religious sect is seen as enemy out to destroy your culture and economy.
I am not listing catastrophic events like earthquakes in densely populated areas, a series of volcanic eruptions that can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere in days, etc. as their occurrence cannot be predicted but their impact can be quantified.
Conclusion: The greatest living mind - Hawking gives us about 1,000 years before we will disappear into the abyss of history or escape this planet. I however think he is being optimistic. I do not foresee our children's generation escaping the crushing effects of a combination of climatic changes, wars, and growing intolerance. Even if a remnant of humanity survives we will be living in stone age like conditions of drastically reduced populations, basically where we where about 5,000 years ago or so - just with worse climate. Back to lives where existence will be short, brutish and nasty.
The answer is obviously - yes. The question is only about the timelines.
Climate Change: Geologists have told us that the this period of the Goldilocks temperature profile of being not too hot (Average temperatures of >90F) or not too cold (Average temperatures below 40F), will last about 5,000 more years (conditions apply). The earth has swung from one extreme to another several times in the past and will do again in the future for sure. We are experiencing the comfort of the transition in the present times.
The issue here is how much of the anthropogenic induced climate change will hasten the tipping over and how fast. lets look at the stats - Co2 levels of 400 ppm barrier has been breached. 440 ppm is considered by all environmentalists to be a sort of point of no return - that is, whatever we may do or not do after that will not reverse the runaway greenhouse effect.
India, China, Africa: The developed countries have had a great ride to prosperity based on democracies, powerful militaries, and a fossil fuel based economy. The going was great till the negative effects of carbon dependent economies hit home.
Now, we have roughly billion+ populations each in India, China and Africa (~50% of human population) that is now bent upon achieving material comfort levels comparable with developed countries and this cannot be done quickly enough with alternate (non-carbon) forms of energy. The carbon based energy consumption will curve up steeply for these populations and contribute faster and faster to climate change.
Wars and civil unrest: The present models of economic growth - mostly various shades of capitalism have necessarily created winners and losers, both within and between countries. Failed nations such as North Korea, Pakistan and Zimbabwe have taken the road of belligerence to ward off imaginary enemies. With the force multiplier effect of nuclear weapons the dangers of even limited wars is too large to even make sense of. Even militias like ISIS and Taliban have displaced millions from their homes and ravaged the countries.
Within countries too the income disparity is increasing rapidly with large swathes of populace feeling left out of the growth stories and there is nothing more dangerous than a mob with nothing to lose. We are seeing the effects of it in terms of increased frequency of lawlessness of increasing ferocity and this can lay waste to the concept of nation states far quicker than external aggression.
Religious warfare: One of the sources of social unity - religion - has now become increasingly a source of narrow identity where, everyone not subscribing to your particular religious sect is seen as enemy out to destroy your culture and economy.
I am not listing catastrophic events like earthquakes in densely populated areas, a series of volcanic eruptions that can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere in days, etc. as their occurrence cannot be predicted but their impact can be quantified.
Conclusion: The greatest living mind - Hawking gives us about 1,000 years before we will disappear into the abyss of history or escape this planet. I however think he is being optimistic. I do not foresee our children's generation escaping the crushing effects of a combination of climatic changes, wars, and growing intolerance. Even if a remnant of humanity survives we will be living in stone age like conditions of drastically reduced populations, basically where we where about 5,000 years ago or so - just with worse climate. Back to lives where existence will be short, brutish and nasty.
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